To all crash lovers...
"Facts are facts and will not disappear on account of your likes."
― Anonymous
Imtiaz Sahab,
What is the outlook of USD-PKR parity? Do you think USD will stabilize now ?
Shaikh sb, if my prediction(s) went even slight off target, then the fellow forumers will grill me on this very forum ... :)
Anyways, its not me or my personal views, these are at the end of the day 'predictions' (I just paste them here) and mathematics suggest only a YES or NO with common sense adding PARTIAL. In the following, let me copy paste some data from a source that I cam across and the 'interpretations are left to the readers'. Unfortunately, PKR outlook doesn't seem healthy. The more the trade deficit (import-export gap), more we need to borrow USD, the more the demand for the USD, the more it will hike and the more it will hike the more the PKR will get the hit (unfortunately). The sustainable, long term solution can be increased exports.
** Since the last depreciation, the government ensured that State Bank must consult the Govt. before setting Forex rates. This goes against the philosophy of 'Autonomous Institutions' as state bank rather than market situation will react or may react as per the desires of the Govt. who may keep PKR artificially hiked to avoid political backlash - something similar that Ishaq Dar was mater of achieving dragging USD back to 98 but that was all artificial and consequences are here.
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Source: https://walletinvestor.com/forex-forecast/usd-pkr-prediction
USD to PKR Forecast, Dollar to Pakistani Rupee Currency Rate Prediction
Some interesting predictions, may or may not come true.
Prediction in 1 years is approx 164 PKR/USD, if that comes true than 4 years prediction will most likely become a reality with approx 192PKR/USD.
USD to PKR Forecast, Dollar to Pakistani Rupee Currency Rate Prediction: Is "United States Dollar / Pakistani Rupee" Pair a Good Investment?
https://walletinvestor.com/forex-forecast/usd-pkr-prediction
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- Will Dollar to Pakistani Rupee rate grow / rise / go up?
Yes. The USD/PKR rate can go up from 139.089 to 164.316 in one year.
- Is it profitable to invest in USD/PKR Forex pair?
Yes. The long-term earning potential is +18.14% in one year.
- Will Dollar to Pakistani Rupee rate fall / drop?
No (see above).
- What will USD/PKR FX rate be worth in five years (2023)?
The USD/PKR (USDPKR ) future rate will be 192.552 .
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@YC
You crow will always be white. So how dare I try to remove that paint.
If It was not true, you wouldn't get ants in your pants to reply back to someone who was not even addressing you :)
A very happy and blessed day to you, Mr. Dealer! We know it's your bread-n-butter. So carry on!
Ghusa na karu
I am just trying to tell you that property has not crashed, believe me I don’t mind if it does, so won’t many Pakistanis,
Like many other forum memebers, I also would like to know than where has it crashed ?
Pls prove it and I will be happy to agree with you
@FACTS LOVER with love and care
FACTS are like cows, if you look them into the face for long time, they generally run away......
There is no more deceptive than an obvious FACT.....
For every FACT there is an infinity of hypotisis........
@Dollar in 2023= 192 paki ruppee
27% of the profit in five years if we keep the money in Dollar for five years???
Speaking generally..... IT IS NOT THE PROFIT BUT YOU ARE JUST MAINTAINING ITS VALUE......
No business man will give a damn to this idea of keeping it for five years with the hope of return of 27%....
In Islamabad the property normally give you 50 to 100% return in five years......
@Dollar holders....
If you have the weapon you can rob a bank but if you have a bank then you can rob the whole city.....
My advice would be.... Invest in Islamabad in property....... I had millions of $ in the last decade and 8 invested all in Islamabad property and I am happy today and advising you the same OTHERWISE please share with us your experience in 2023 regarding holding the $.... :)
** First of all, no one is selling or buying USDs or plots by just visiting this forum. This is a platform to discuss ideas with alternative facts (logical arguments & counter arguments) and don't be blind folded. If any one bothers to scroll through this exact thread of discussions, I have advocated for both (in favor and against: Real Estate & USDs) - importantly highlighting that 'Real Estate (Immovable Asset) & USD (Cash Reserves)' are not in a parity. One needs a land to reside at, and needs cash too to survive.
** Secondly, I would suggest to use the term PKR or Pakistan and avoid Paki (which have been used again). I trust the intentions were not bad but still Paki for Pakistani is as you say Germ for German. Cultural respect may seem trivial but it does matters...
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Getting back to claims:
Your Claim: "Speaking generally..... IT IS NOT THE PROFIT BUT YOU ARE JUST MAINTAINING ITS VALUE......"
-- Fact: There must be the sense to complete the sentence 'MAINTAINING ITS VALUE......' --> Value is always thresholded against some comparable entity. A 100 USD will always be 100 but its value pitched against PKR, EUR, GBP, INR is increasing and that is what matters. Like a 25x50 plot will always have same dimension & location but its value may increases of decreased 'AGAINST SOME COMPARABLE ENTITY'. Borrow 100 USD and pay 100 USD isn't a big deal BUT that is, if you are earning in PKR to make up for that 100 - that's the point here!
Your Claim: "No business man will give a damn to this idea of keeping it for five years with the hope of return of 27%...."
Facts:
1. Believe me, businesses give some serious damn about retaining USDs. IMF primarily deals in USDs and it control states. Next time Saudis & Qatris asking for Petrol & Gas bills and we will hand them retrieved lands and plots by CDA instead of USDs - sounds like a solution.
2. Tell any investor that you will get a 27% by sitting in your home, majority will take that with a big thanks. The flight of USD must be tracked from Jan 1, 2018 when it traded around 105 to the foreseeable 2023, whatever the value may be at that time.
3. I think, even a child knows the power of asset liquidity. Cash is the de-facto leader in that, property is not. You cash the plots, not the other way around.
Your Claim: "In Islamabad the property normally give you 50 to 100% return in five years...... "
Fact: Overstatement to say the least! you missed "...some properties may..." in your sentence.
"@Dollar in 2023= 192 paki ruppee" -- Good to know that the reality has prevailed, few days back the claims were 'Poor mathematical calculations that are Laughable and Shockable etc.'
I tried to inquire, where is the 'poverty in calculations'? so they can be corrected and to date, I am still awaiting that response...
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I myself in favour of diversifying the portfolio and both Real Estate & USDs are prime candidates for that. But nothing is black and white, each has its own pros & cons. As a reader and contributor of this form, one of my roles is to furnish the facts rather than just liking/promoting the wishes of myself and others... :)
Respected Imtiaz sahib by maintaining the value means......
The buying power of the dollar in Pakistan...... If you keep 1000 dollar in Pakistan for five years or whatever..... It does not give you the profit but it maintains your buying power in certain items for a certain period of time( 2018 to 2023).....
Yes the bank earns with your $......
Respected Sir, I am here to learn first and then share my own personal experience to the best of my knowledge and belief..........
Ilyas sb you are right fundamentally. However, at the end of the day its about leveraging an asset, i.e., cash the dollar to purchase any commodity. The more strong the USD or for that sake any other currency, purchasing power increases and that is what matters.
My last post on this topic would be like this............
Paper money can reportedly carry more germs than a household toilet.
Why no one is asking about the depreciation of dollar in the market with time around world????
Well .... I am sure about one thing .... That effect of this currency devaluation will soon be observed in developed real estate, specially in cities like Islamabad Zone-1 with limited supply of houses/plots.
So i kind of agree with Ilyas Sahab, dollar will eventually stabilize but real estate prices will grow.
For me, next 1-2 months are best time to convert your dollars into real estate assets … But go only for developed areas.
Yes real estate prices will grow, no matter how fast or slow but they will, not across the board but in those areas where internal (inside the society by the developer) and external developments (state or province level infrastructural area) will take place!!
USD is also bound to grow, perhaps not aggressively as it did in last 6 odd months but 150 mark may not be too distant because IMF is insistent on that and our trade deficit is not helping.
Now state-bank will consult Govt. for Forex rates, I see something similar like Ishaq Dar did to drag the dollar from above 100 to 98 but that was all artificial and in a space of 2 years that artificial hike has hit hard jumping from 98 to almost 140. Saudi loan & deferred oil payments may help PKR stabilise but to a certain extent only if, unless genuine economic reform measures are not taken (Increasing Tax Net, Cutting losses in Energy Sector, Circular Debts, Increased Export, Fuel Prices)
- What we don't need is unnecessary manipulation (buying USDs from open market to fill in the reserves) to stabilise the dollar but once the borrowed USDs have been burnt off, their repayment can be disaster.
- What we need is increased exports and minimized trade deficit (export - import) that is the ideal solution and hoping that it happen too.
Otherwise PKR against USD is like our team batting in the 2nd Innings... Despite all the sympathies and support, no one bets on that... Unfortunately.
Very fruitful discussion going on in this forum by the members. No matter we like it or not weakening dollar will still be stronger then PKR, and most currencies of the world. Mara hua hathi sawa lakh ka he hoga. In forseeble future i dont see any increase in exports unless we receive speciel blessings from the power that matters. In Pakistan buisness model is very simple take loan and get it written off or take subsidies from the government and stash ur wealth overseas. All ultimately paid by the taxpayers money. Here nationalism is only for the poor or stupids.
in last 70 yrs we have developed only one exportable item and world doesnt need it any more. There is no input on human resource development. Back bone of any economy is its people and mashallah we are at top from the bottom in that aspect with stunted growth both in body and mind rampant in the society.
Although i am apolitical neither IK nor pti fan but i see only positive in IK with his vision of human resource development.
Agreed HR development can alone be a significant booster. IK's intentions and capabilities can be sincere and willful, hoping the team also do the miracles...
On a similar note, the FBI's (masterpiece) blunders never cease to surprise... Tax imposition is no issue but Subsidizing the Elite at the expense of the Commoner is a big one...
Ask public to invest in Pakistan and be safe under 5 million, once they do it than bring in a new rule to hunt them down!!
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FBR looking to bring property, car buyers into tax net
https://www.zameen.com/news/fbr-looking-to-bring-property-car-buyers-into-tax-net.html
"Lahore: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is making concerted efforts to expand the tax net to people who bought properties worth more than PKR 3 million, and cars worth more than PKR 2 million, a news source reported. Notices have been sent to people falling in the category from DHA, Gulberg, Model Town, and Cantonment.
FBR has given a 15-day deadline for the submission of property details to the people who have been sent notices. These are the people who bought properties between 2015 and 2017. 100 notices were issued this time. Action will be taken against people who do not submit the details of property and cars bought in the three years.
Previously, FBR had sent notices to another 300 people in these areas as well and they had been asked to submit the details of their properties and cars by 14th December, 2018."
Latest is that malik saab is on ecl list .more down fall of bahria and its investors.
Off-topic in the context of currency devaluation, but
As an affectee of the corrupt system, I/we had wished, we had seen long ago the corrupt not on the ECL but behind the prison CELL. Be it Zardari, Nawaz, Shahbaz, Tareen, Elahi, Aleem, Aleema etc. + all corrupt across all institutes and in our society. The accountability as of now is a big joke with prime accuse of Takhth Pari land hand over Pervaiz Elahi is the Speaker of the Punjab Assembly.
Anyways, let me share the very recent masterpiece of the 'accountability bureau'
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Govt appoints 'dead man' in NAB reference as DRAP head
Dec 28, 2018
https://tinyurl.com/y7gymd8u
"The federal government on Thursday appointed Sheikh Akhtar Hussain, who had claimed to be dead in a National Accountability Bureau (NAB) reference against him, as the head of the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP)"
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Handcuff the dead and appoint the living dead!!
I sincerely wish things get improve this time. However, expecting free and fair trial from a messed up NAB is a big disappointment in the making ...
PKR seems to be getting stable now, is there any further PKR depreciation expected ?
Its a tragedy that PKR has seen its worst in the last 12 months or so that even it being stable for 6 odd weeks sounds good enough! Altough it has fallen by a few paisas (20 paisas approx) in those 6 weeks.
I wish USD gets a reversal against the PKR but that sounds like a hard challenge for the time being. Relative stability is mainly due to the loans from KSA/UAE to provide the breathing space for maintaining the balance of payments. As soon as we are in serious talks with the IMF PKR will tremble. IMF has been insistent on 145 to 150 PKR. State-bank is not autonomous any more and it needs to consult the Govt. before setting exchange rate so we may see intervention to keep PKR artificially hiked like Ishaq Dar did (borrowing more USDs) but it fore backs later.
'Rupee could easily settle at 150 in next six months'
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1862966/2-rupee-easily-settle-150-next-six-months/
IMF suggests higher interest rate, rupee depreciation
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1817743/2-imf-suggests-higher-interest-rate-rupee-depreciation/
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More alarming are following facts that do not reflect optimistic views for PKR & economy in the foreseeable future.
"We need to find an alternative solution to this rather than taking aid from different countries. The government is not curing the disease, but hiding the symptoms. The results of devaluing rupee are not good. Despite a 30 percent devaluation of the rupee, our exports are still on the decline,” Saleem had said."
"He said that the $1bn given by Saudi Arabia was spent within 16 days."
"How long will the country be run on loans? There are interests not friendships between the states, we should know that there are no free lunches," he said.
Dr Saleem said that Pakistan received loan on 2.8 percent interest rate from the UAE, and on 3 percent from Saudi Arabia."
https://www.geo.tv/latest/224255-pm-imran-met-with-company-which-won-bid-for-mohmand-dam-on-china-visit-reveals-dr-saleem?fbclid=IwAR3cLOSNWT8b0W0x7LWqYgAS7hcFrBRiE_mdQx6AhyjxnCbbOKbFfZVFl9E