Thanks Ilyas Sb.
Just learning from Gurus.
I am still in primary school, sir.
As indicated earlier, 150 mark may not be too distant.
'Rupee could easily settle at 150 in next six months'
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1862966/2-rupee-easily-settle-150-next-six-months/
KARACHI: “If you have to determine a level where the rupee might settle against the US dollar, 150 is a very easy target you can see in the next six months,” remarked Alfalah GHP Chief Executive Maheen Rahman.
*Again, that's a prediction not a necessity. As some fellow forumers earlier, termed 'Predicted values' as 'Poor Mathematical Calculations' :)
Dear Sirs,
This is a very healthy and positive debate on the current real estate market situation for investors. Abdul Qayyum Sb brought a good point; it will take years to reach break even point in the market there is a wide gap between demand and supply which is very true. My question is if current market price levels of Islamabad property are realistic? Is it in the range of common Pakistani people who are earning in Pakistan. I am an overseas Pakistani and find is very difficult to buy a small old house of 25x50 in for example G sector of Islamabad? Main players in the property market in my understanding are overseas Pakistanis and black money if both are not able to afford for different reasons how come the property prices will still appreciate?
Interesting point Hamad!
My perception on this as below. Again these are personal views.
Black Money as one of the main players in Pakistani Real Estate Market is a strong enough theory but it lacks a substantial evidence as to what extent. There is no doubt about its role, however, magnitude is not quantifiable. Previous Govt. did offered incentives to bring in the money with some predefined taxes to make it white but that is still to be reflected with its injection in the real estate.
Supply and Demand is the main reason that makes the real estate to flourish, even if there are hiccups along the path. 'Supply-Demand' at times may sound an overstatement but its a fact too. The reason for growth in coming years.
- The Rise of the Small Players: F, G, I Sectors, BT, DHA etc. developed parts represent a concentrated market with more end buyers settling down or rental yields rather than high gains. However, in recent years the emergence of low cost societies has proven to be a success. For example in ISB CBR-2, ICHS, etc. where you can get a file/plot in about 2 lac/marla has introduced a new model of small investment with healthy growth/demand. Similarly in Lahore, Al-Kabir Town has gained good reputation and growth.
Fact 1: Low Cost societies are on a rise compared to some big names. These low cost societies may not have same media/marketing coverage but people trading in them have made decent revenues and have attained fair enough growth appreciation (doubling in few cases in last 2 years). As per my knowledge, talking about the emerging ISB market some underdogs like CBR-2, ICHS are doing better than Media dominant Capital Smart City, Taj Residencia, Park View etc.
Diversity of Real Estate Inventory: Both ISB and RWP are growing beyond their traditional boundaries, i.e., Fateh Jhang, Chakri etc. with decent options on low investment. People with fancy real estates offices in Blue Area etc. on %age wise may be making less than those small site offices in those emerging locations.
Fact 2: Cities expanding beyond the developed areas have lime lighted societies that may be a bit far (as of now) from mainstream city but they represent a good future and growth.
Size of the Property: Previously 25 x 50 was about the lowest of the benchmarks for a plot/house. But now smaller plots of 2 - 3 Marla are more in demand that can sell quick and construction can be cheaper, overall.
Fact 3: Small societies or open land with smaller dimensions of plots/constructed units are more in demand than the established ones that offer the traditional sizing of 5, 7, 10, 20 Marla etc.
Having said that, Market is slow, now denial to that. Previously, I have tried to furnish some figures on the shortage of houses, people needing a roof on their head etc. on a thread (some thing on PM initiative for Housing) that more objectively reflected things in the context of projected growth and demands.
Thank you Imtiaz you have truly a deep insight of the property market and people like me benefit from your inputs at this forum. What is your advise under current scenario, if I have to invest about 10 million Rupees for three years from minimum risk and good capital appreciation point of view; what are the best options in Rawalpindi and Islamabad ? Once again thanks very much for your en lighted input.
"...However for local Pakistanis this is not an issue since foreign currency does not have impact for local people."
Well explainer by Mr. Imtiaz already but it is very naive of local Pakistanis to think that locals are not hit by currency devaluation, when our export levels bare minimum vs. China, which in comparison is completely incorrect or even India, as their export volumes are massive (1 to 1000+). So Pak has long way to go to catch up full export potential and with security and investment hurdles, bad FBR policies/system, it will not be easy. But need a stable, educated and serious Govt. To turn things around and that too may take several years. Not in my lifetime I guess.
Raza Sb.
I do not think it could not be done in life time!
In fact if govt play honest, in 5 years, wonders could be seen.
-Cut lavish imports by maximum amount
-Tax all shop in country which is in the market by Rs 1000 per year or even more (under self-declaration)
-Tax all Muhalla shops in cities by Rs 500 each per year (under self-declaration)
-Tax all village shops in the country by Rs 100 per year (under self-declaration)
-All luxury cars must be stopped coming inside the country (this might save millions of $)
-Talk to China about Pak export imbalance upfront, they are already giving to Bangla Desh, Sri Lanka and some other countries.
- Bring tax evaders in the net and put them in jail of not paying. A very difficult task but govt can do that.
- Pay honest attention on all department’s audit reports and rectify where possible.
- Do not just punish the corrupt ones, keep them in jail, till they return the loot money to state.
- Talk to all stake holders of business community and devise ways to improve exports as per their intake and relax rules for business.
I am sure, this can make a torn around in 5 years.
All Valued Forum Experts Abdul Qayyum Sb, Imtiaz Sb, Nadeem Sb,
Kindly advise an investment portfolio for me with reference to my above question.
Hammad, as a personal preference, in order of priority
The reasonable growth seem to be in the societies along the proposed ring road
- I-16 (5 Marla) - approx 3.5 M
- CBR-2 (10 Marla) - approx 2.5 M
- Phase 8 (5 - 7 Marla) - 2.5 - 4.0 M
- Gulberg Residencia (7 Marla) - 4.0 M
- B-17 (5 - 7 Marla, E, F, G block)
Under current circumstances, go only for the possession ones.
* all figure above are approx.
Rightly said AQ sb. However, as a matter of unfortunate fact, our state/country is mostly run by the bureaucracy, Ministry is a fancy public face that changes but the ugly truth of bureaucracy remains same. Pakistan is a country with one of the biggest chunk of tax that can be collected. However, FBR is a joke of an institute.
- It insists and urges people to File Tax Returns. Its not people responsibility to first pay the tax and then follow a complex documentation process to file it. It is the responsibility of the Revenue Collection Body to integrate the tax payments with National ID and return the tax files to the tax payers. FBR asking people to pay and than also file is as if one goes to a restaurant, pays service charges and than the restaurant asks that person to also clean the table, bring the food and than clean up the dishes... The biggest reason for low taxation is that FBR is incapable and corrupt. Examples:
- Recently they couldn't do anything regarding the tax defaulters but threatened to penalize late filers with a penalty of 20000 PKR.
- Taxing incoming mobiles with a ridiculous tax, that too in USDs. At one end the govt. says it plans to ditch the USD and on other hands asks people to pay in USD or its equivalent. Would the FBR guy be capable of intercepting a VVIP if he is carrying multiples mobiles? I dont think so. There must be a uniform mechanism.
- Any Pakistani citizen cannot name a single item ranging from first thing in the day (tooth paste) to last thing (green tea post dinner) that is not covered under the tax! Everyone pays, full tax on all the item used and what he/she gets at the end, not even the basic sense of security that allows one to hold even a mobile phone worth of few thousands in public. The commoner is paying all the tax it could with almost 0 incentives!
All that is needed is an active role of FBR. FBR is incompetent and it has an easy line of blame 'people dont pay tax', why would they to cover up your luxuries and corruption!
Forget about the devaluation of Rupee and everything else. Please focus on the handsome looks of your Prime Minister. Congratulations!
Imtiaz Sb.
Not a single word to readdress your narration.
We are kind of surrounded by a pitch dark tunnel of hopelessness and if any false signal show up at the other end, jump to believe on a way out.
I get myself mentally dispositioned when I think what happened to our nationwide talent pool!
Pakistan used to be self-sufficient in great planners, foreign service warriors and top rated talented professionals in civil service.
These people made wonders in planning, in aviation, in legislations, in infrastructure and in all facets of life?
Allah gharut kare inn nepotism waloun ko. They completely destroyed our country for their lust and greed.
No hope, mate!
Allah Pakistan ka “Qaht ur rijaal” door furmae…Aameen
Hamad Sb.
Imtiaz s. and Nadeem sb suggestion is my suggestion.
I used to give A- grade to the BTs, DHAs, Islamabad highway and that side of Pindi but now after RRR, the whole picture is being painted a different and larger canvas.
Now new zone-2 is challenging my new Pindi.
Prerequisites of new jail in H-17 already commenced , new medical city in I-series is another reality and I bet a nice road network making is written on the wall to access these new projects in RRR prospective, too.
I suggest, for an investor, a careme ought to be hired for at least 5 days to visit all developments in zone-2, piece by piece!.
A dealer bound or web-based visit is quite different than the self-manifested one.
@imtiaz sb
One reason for slow property market in ISB is rise of property market in Peshawar. I know my few investor friends who take out their money from Isb and put in Peshawar in last 6 months.
@AQ bro
the high demand of property in muhallahs of pindi as compared to bahria phase-8 has 2 reasons. One we all know is distance to Isb. And 2nd is construction cost in bahria. People prefer to build plot in muhallas of pindi because they make one floor in parts room by room -- start living... Then make second floor in parts and then finish outside like tile work --- i hope you got my point.
@li
You touched my heart.
When I visit my family house in Muhalla abadee, I find all supplies at the door, Roghni Nans in breakfast, fresh vegetables each morning, nice sounds of “ Tootiyna lawa lo, pressure cooker theek kara lo, manjian unwa lo”. All these facilities on dirt cheap rates.
Another main facto is the local schools at low fees and at least one good school is available in each Muhalla on a little higher fee.
Having said that, sir, The whole zone is confirmed in high earth quake zone and BT/DHA standard construction , if affordable, cannot be placed on par in spite of having all plus in Muhallas!
But you are right, far a larger populace, Muhallas still favorable.
@Abdul Qayyum
Sir, each and every point you mentioned in your earlier post is being worked on at full-speed and there has been quite bit of progress on each front.
Problem is that PTI's government almost stopped stuffing tax payer's money in to the filthy mouths of media, and now all they see is the sky collapsing on earth and whole shit falling apart.
These media clowns have been lecturing whole nation on how to fix economy. Perhaps they should fix economy within their own businesses now instead of living off of free money.
Secondly, Pakistan is shifting directions and getting ready to move towards different kind of economy and equal opportunity for all citizens.
Exports are up and imports are going down. Foreign remittances are at the highest level so far when compared to PMLN government. Those friends like KSA and UAE who didn't even wanted to see Nawaz's face, gave us much needed help.
China covered all the gap but we can't announce that because we don't want to alienate Americans and IMF. We also want them to be part of this new economic direction which hopefully they will in coming days ahead.
ExxonMobil coming back to Pakistan after 27 years. KSA will be investing around $15 billion more in our oil sector. Italian oil company met PM other day and wants to invest in natural gas sector.
Suzuki is expanding and investing more money in to a new assembly line. China's biggest auto manufacturer already signed agreement to manufacture in Pakistan. Qatar is willing to give jobs to at least 100000 Pakistanis and most of these jobs this year will go to FATA people. Imagine these are 100,000 homes that will have steady income.
So all this and much more is happening in the background which is yet to mature and come out in public.
I remember Nawaz's first 100 days when he left country on auto-pilot and went to London. It is very easy to borrow and show fake growth by number-fudging done by Ishaq Dar.
Fist time in history of Pakistan, Executive, Judiciary and Army are all on same page. First time in Pakistan they are actually diagnosing the problem and fixing it.
Inshallah better days are ahead for those who are not corrupt and doesn't want to take advantage off of their fellow Pakistanis or by hook or crook.
Like Imran Khan said in his first speech, they will cry. So only people crying are the ones who are corrupt and have been enjoying perks from this rigged and corrupt system.
Dear JDM
In Shaa Allah a real light is in the making on the other end of the dark tunnel.
These clowns are going to right where they belong and corrupt media will keep jumping and crying!
First time in Pakistan, I am witnessing a real change in youth:
I was watching an evening talk show and my son advised me:
“Papa why do not you abort these filthy talking from these dudes. Please go YouTube and watch “ Supreme court proceedings from the court reporters, they do not tell lies plus you will be saved from these ugly Ads, you do not like?”
Believe me, sir, I watched one video hosted by a court reporter , Siddique Jan, and discovered big difference between actual situation in court and the one painted by these clowns, who never go court for real-time reporting!
I think my kid is right. These so called anchors ( not all of them of course) are not getting stuffed, as you say, with our money and their fate is put on only crying and crying!
The best, sustainable and particle solution to tackle devalued PKR is:
Trade Deficit = Exports in USD - Imports in USB = 0 (Devaluation Neutralised)*.
*As long as PKR not planning to replace USD as the global currency.
Devaluation can be a blessing in the disguise, if and when Pakistan use it as a tool to increase its exports (and FDI too). China has used currency devaluation as a massive tool to be a global leader in exports. Results:
- Chine in process of making commercial Aircrafts and products of highly specilaised nature to be sent to global market.
- Chinese Electronics maker surpassing Korean, Japanese and American Counterparts.
- Chinese Economy surpassing Japnese to be No. 2 and now looking to go head on head with the US economy (to possibly overtake as soon as Petro-Dollar got a dent).
https://www.investopedia.com/trading/chinese-devaluation-yuan/
@Abdul Qayyum,
Yes, I also watch Siddiqui Jaan's videos on you-tube. Everyone is scared to tell the truth on mainstream TV channels. All of them are controlled and worthless.
Your boy is very smart. You should listen to him. I also don't watch any Pakistani TV channels.
On another note, I predicted before elections that real estate will collapse and it sure collapsed as i predicted. Those who sold out before elections made a very smart choice. For the rest it will be patience test for another 10 years.
Na Nigal Sake Gey, Aur Na Thok Sake Gey
BTW, British Airways is also starting operations again in Pakistan. Not really good for economy but it shows that things are moving in the right directions and people starting to believe in restoration of peace in Pakistan.
In my opinion, PTI government will be the best government Pakistan ever had after the tenure of Ayub Khan.
I hope you recover from your “I predicted crash” issue soon
It’s ok, we all make predictions which not always prove correct, no need to turn it into an ego issue
It hasn’t crahed at all, I sold couple of my properties in relatively slow and less lucrative societies last month on reaonsbals returns
You can’t generalise sale purchase of property like in your statement that those who did not sell before elections wait for 10years, it’s noy a bitcoin trade
In a booming population country like ours, it’s not easy for the property to crash