When raw material used in imports are 60% imported then by devaluation even you can not raise exports because cost of doing business also increase .
Since low oil price will reduce the import bill , Plus duty free import of cotton will boost textile exports (the one one which Pakistan exports is based majorly 60-70%) . I hope to see CA deficit deterioration in next 6 months . Rupee will remain stable for now but a big correction in real estate is knocking doors amid news of new real estate authority. In Pakistan real estate multiplied 3 times in last decade which is extra ordinary hike as compared to neighboring regions. Real estate activity halt is seen in Lahore and Karachi since 2016 and this time Islamabad will face a halt which had some activity even after 2016. I am not economy expert but I can smell something fishy in realty in coming days.
IK is a curse.
You are right but there is another thing in case of real estatethat the area in which you are investing, what is the growth rate of that particular area.
No doubt that currency depreciation is a fact but investment in right place also effects.
Very well said Saiqa .In real estate the brand name (example : Dha) , Location ,accessibility and facilities matters alot.
Whatever will happen to the economy good properties remains in demand always.For example the property prices always are intact in All Dha which includes Karachi ,Lahore Islamabad .
CDA sectors and so on.
HAHAHAHA, till few months back people were referring to two brands IN property business of PAKISTAN and now only one left and they took out Bahria all of sudden, which is still a big reality.
Dha remain safe heaven for investment as it is a Authority governed by GHQ.
On the other hand Bahria has best community facilities in the country .
Dha country wide developed properties are for affluent people where else in Bahria even middle class people can also be afford too.
Interesting comparison - History of Devaluation
1947 ~ 2018 : 3.37 ~ 139 = 135 PKR/71 Yrs ==> Depreciation of 1.90 PKR each year (on avg.)
In my personal opinion the Pak rupee will lose more ground to $,£ etc. As somebody has already pointed out with such a massive import bill things are likely to get ever more expensive for the common man and no doubt inflation will go through the roof. Defence savings and other savings schemes are maybe offering eye watering interest rates but the price inflation soon takes care of any gains. The general air of uncertainty and indecisiveness of this govt is not helping things as well.
apologies... forgot the link to the video, in earlier post that is now pasted below
https://www.facebook.com/liaqat.jawaid.1/videos/10157001916304390/
Allah sent Imran Khan as blessing for Pakistan.
He single-handedly brought $15 billions help in to Pakistan economy without even going to IMF.
Inflation rate of first 5 months of this government is lower than the inflation rate of first 5 months of PMLN government in 2013.
Only corrupts and free-grazers are crying. Only corrupt economy is collapsing. Lazy investors will not have any room in this country anymore.
Gone are the days when rich/elites use to park in plots and get rich overnight. Now they will have to work hard like rest of us. Or they can give their money to other Pakistanis who can put it to use and help documented economy grow.
BTW, Nice to see so many Aristotles crying here as well. It only means Pakistan is moving in right direction as planned.
Jdm bro harsh but truth. Your are rubbing salt into the wounds.
JDM bro, hats off for such a brainy analysis..... You know how to pick the diamond out of ash.....
BIG BIG BIG BUT......
these are these overseas Aristotle who have saved our economy and th3y are th3 ones doing th3 productive job for Pakistan qasam sa....
Since this is a forum on Currency vs Real Estate, sorry for being slight off-topic...
IK must be given his time whether elected or selected as this is how our system works, unfortunately. No one came to power out of pure election so at-least this govt. deserves completion of their tenure as you can somehow vote them out rather than being oppressed by a dictator for a decade.
IK's performance so far, on the economic front cant be objectively judged until (minimum) one fiscal year is completed. It will be too early to call him a blessing or the curse at this stage. The only issue is big political claims are backfiring. IK's efforts are worth an appreciation and especially projects like:
- Shelter Homes for the Poor
- Whatever homes to be constructed (NPHP) for the economically weak.
These can be considered as genuine steps and not pure political mileage, whenever they got materialized.
However, FACTS must not be MIXED.
- Recent Loans
I am not too sure about the exact figures as such matters always remain hidden from the public but in foreign relations there are no friends and enemies there are only mutual interests or conflicts:
** Farrukh Saleeem spills beans on Mohmand Dam contract
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/415514-farrukh-saleeem-spills-beans-on-mohmand-dam-contract
"There are no free lunches, he said. 'National interests drive international politics.'
Further dwelling into the details of loans Pakistan has acquired from Arab countries, he said the Islamabad will pay more than 3% interest to Saudi Arabia and 2.8% interest on UAE loan.
The financial policies of the PTI government are not working and the circular debt has increased further while the inflation has also risen by 2 percent."
** Qatari prince allowed to hunt houbara bustard
https://www.dawn.com/news/1449121
"QUETTA: Though the Balochistan government has approved guidelines to ensure implementation of the law for the wildlife’s protection, authorities have issued a special permit to a Qatari prince, allowing him to hunt internationally protected houbara bustard in the province.
Sources said that the Qatari prince had paid $100,000 before he was issued the permit for hunting the migrating birds."
- Corrupt Crying (but some are enjoying the power too.)
** SC rejects Pervaiz Elahi’s appeal against its decision in Bahria Town Rawalpindi land case
https://www.samaa.tv/news/2019/01/sc-rejects-pervaiz-elahis-appeal-against-its-decision-in-bahria-town-rawalpindi-land-case/
** Govt appoints 'dead man' in NAB reference as DRAP head
https://nation.com.pk/28-Dec-2018/man-who-claimed-to-be-dead-in-nab-reference-appointed-drap-head
** End of K-P Ehtesab Commission likely
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1796328/1-end-k-p-ehtesab-commission-likely/
- Lazy Investor: There is nothing like lazy investor, any investor with legitimately earned money has made all his/her efforts. Its just the caution. My question is for a common overseas Pakistani that earns but is abroad and only visits Pakistan once in a blue moon. What are the options for him? (Stock Market? Industry? Personal Business?). Unfortunately, time has not arrived where we can invest our hard earned cash and enjoy the returns with peace of mind. How many times have we seen people being defrauded while business goes bankrupt. Yes real estate is never the only option and it can be passive as well but relative peace of mind and not being defrauded as happens on other investments. Unfortunate fact that in Pakistan, not favorable circumstances to be innovative with the investments
- Documented Economy: For common people each single item/product/service is documented in terms of sales, consumption, property and income tax. Govt. collect all the taxes but cant give you any document evidence. Its the elite (regardless) of their affiliation who enjoy the perks of undocumented economy.
** CJP Nisar in action over Aleema Khan’s offshore property
https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/headline/cjp-nisar-in-action-over-aleema-khans-offshore-property/
** PM Imran Khan’s sister Aleema Khan owns over Rs450 million property in US
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/417134-pm-imran-khans-sister-aleema-khan-owns-over-rs450-million-property-in-us
For the Socrates of the forum, its called argument and counter arguments, I am not sure if such can be called crying in a parallel universe for them :)
Its just the political circus, shared among power brokers to rule the commoner
Rana Sanaullah vs Fawad Chaudhry At Hamid Mir Son Wedding - Pakistan News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ct8sHnOCJg
Best Wishes for IK and importantly our country but there is a lot of political baggage that Khan has to lay off before his performance can be judged more objectively. Realistically the guy does deserves at-least one complete tenure.
Sometimes you have to demolish the old rotten house in order for the new one to be raised with a brand new solid foundation.
Same is the case with this economy. A major portion of it will have to be destroyed and eliminated first, in order for the clean and fair growth to emerge.
Listen to two self-styled king makers, Hasan Nisar and Haroon Rasheed. They are now pulling their hairs and ashamed of themselves for creating a fake leader out of a complete moron, who is clueless on taking the country forward.
Empty slogans have short lived, economy is nose diving and inflation is hitting the roof, while potians still busy selling the old choran.
Credibility of this fake leader is exposed with single point: only 9 bn rupees collected after spending 13 bn on media campaign. Of these 9 bn, 8 were given by local Pakistanis including 2 bn from forces/civilian's involuntary salary deduction. So much for potians claim "kaptaan dallaron key dhair laga de ga".
I think every one is surprised for the lack of investment interest shown by overseas Pakistanis, at the of the day investors want return on their investments, they probably don’t think that it’s feasible at this point ,
And all those who think that there is some sort of revolution going on, they are just emotional bunch of kids,
...
Overseas Pakistanis are waiting for Imran Khan to fulfill his promise which is to punish every corrupt to the full extent of the law and bring equality and justice for all. Once that is done, everyone will invest in Pakistan.
US company Cargill today announced to invest $200 million in Pakistan. This is the same company which refused to invest in 2012 because of corrupt government in power.
Also today, Russia firm announced to invest $2 billion dollars in energy projects and dams in Pakistan.
So investment is coming but not to fill pockets of land mafia. Only corrupts will not see it as their looting spree and free-grazing is over in Pakistan.
JDM sahib
when it comes to immi( Imran khan) then we both are on the same page.......
BIG BIG BIG BUT for your last paragraph.....
A Kafir Baba Ji JHON STUART MILL says....
LANDLORDS GROW RICH IN THEIR SLEEP....
Pakistan economy will never grow.. Imports volume is wayy bigger and whoever construct a house, wants to use IMPORTED MATERIAL. No one wants to buy Made in Pakistan Products..
On the other hand CPEC is on the rise. Which will flush out Pakistan Exports and increase Pakistan Imports.
CPEC is same like East India Company Project...