Realty market continues projecting mixed picture in February

The realty market was pulled and pushed in different directions for various reasons during February.

In Lahore, stability has continued to prevail with investors waiting to see what happens in many localities. As DHA Lahore and other major localities of the city remained stable with nothing significant to report, Bahria Orchard’s growth stood out by comparison.

Islamabad has been trudging along on the path to stability, but hasn’t quite made it there yet. DHA Islamabad showed some improvement by coming out of its January slump and found stability with negligible 0.94% and 0.72% price rises for 1-kanal and 10-marla plots. Bahria Town also saw moderate growth because of price increases in Orchard, Blocks M and L. Sector B-17 also performed well because of the upcoming new villas in the society, while Gulberg Residencia’s growth from January cooled into stability in February.

In Karachi, Gwadar’s rising popularity stole investors away from localities such as DHA City Karachi (DCK), so much so that in terms of plots popularity, it fell from the second spot in January to the fifth spot in February. Stability prevailed in places like DHA Karachi and Gulshan-e-Iqbal because of saturation. Bahria Town Karachi (BTK) stood out in Karachi as well by capturing investor attention despite the Gwadar buzz.

DHA Gujranwala is the highlight of our Gujranwala story. Property rates shot up with sharp rises because of the buzz around other DHA projects, such as DHA Bahawalpur and DHA Multan. Other societies more or less remained stable; however, DC Colony’s troubles seem to be far from over given its sharp drops in prices.

LAHORE

Much like January, Lahore did not have much to report in terms of growth during February. Investment in the city has slightly improved in 2017 following last year’s tax implementation. Things are picking up but at a slow and steady pace.

Defence Housing Authority (DHA) Lahore Phases I-VI remained stable at 0.53% and 0.70% for 1-kanal and 10-marla plots, respectively. Phase VI saw some investor action, but the presence of genuine buyers in the other five phases ensured that, largely, stability prevailed. DHA Lahore Phases VII-IX also remained stable with 1-kanal plots coming in at 0.44%, and 10-marla plots coming in at 0.46% – prices did fall slightly in Phase VII, however. Wapda Town, much like DHA Lahore Phases I-VI, has a saturated market and remained stable.

Unlike Bahria Town, which didn’t experience any significant price changes, Bahria Orchard experienced moderate growth because of the newly launched Phase IV. Sale-purchase activity was on the up with a 2.74% rise in 1-kanal plot prices, and a 2.88% increase in 10-marla plot prices. New plot cuttings in Phase IV are partially responsible for this growth.

LDA Avenue I’s growth from January was overturned during February. This month, 1-kanal plots saw a 0.55% increase in prices, whereas 10-marla plots saw a hike of 1.12%.

ISLAMABAD

The capital city has been the slowest on the path to recovery when it comes to the tax issue from last year. For instance, prices in Sector F-11 went down during February after registering only mediocre hikes in January. During February, prices of 1-kanal plots and 10-marla plots went down 0.25% and 0.60%, respectively.

DHA Islamabad recovered from its moderate drop in January and showed an improvement of 0.94% and 0.72% for 1-kanal and 10-marla plots in February. Commercial activity in the society has been on the up and has helped it improve, albeit marginally. Bahria Town saw moderate growth overall. This is because Blocks M, L and Orchard improved in terms of prices; the reason is that investors can get their desired plots on demand in Block L, whereas rumours that possession is about to be handed over have caused a spike in prices for Block M.

Prices in Sector E-11 have seen a slight drop – but are largely stable – because there is little development there.  Sector B-17 experienced moderate growth for both 1-kanal and 10-marla plots at 3.72% and 3.61%, respectively.

Sale-purchase activity saw some energy, as genuine buyers entered the market. Moreover, work on a good number of villas began in Block F, which led to a decent amount of growth during February. The development of a new committee, and recent elections in the society also helped rates inch up.   After good growth in January, Gulberg Residencia remained stable in February. However, prices are expected to shoot up towards April once development work begins in the locality. The upcoming development has helped capture short-term investor interest.

KARACHI

Gwadar turned investor attention away from some areas in Karachi during February. Despite showing the most potential during January in the post-tax scenario, the market did not offer similar results in February. DHA Karachi saw a very slight dip but remained stable. Gulshan-e-Iqbal only saw marginal growth and stuck to stability as well.  BTK is on a warpath it seems – after impressive growth in January, the society experienced similar trends in February. Five-hundred yard² plots registered a 3.98% growth in prices, and 250-yard² plots saw a sharp rise of 6.57% during February. Possession date has been announced for parts of the locality, which has piqued investor and genuine buyer interest alike. Precincts that lie at the start of the society performed better than the rest during February.

Despite its sharp rise last month, DCK saw moderate drops in February. Gwadar is on the menu for many investors, and DCK -despite all it has to offer – has not been able to top whatever offers investors are eyeing in Gwadar.

GUJRANWALA

Of all the property markets we have analysed for February, Gujranwala had the most mixed results. Prices in DHA Gujranwala remained stable through most of February but began travelling upwards in the last week, eventually helping the locality register sharp growth of 6.86% and 8.29% for 1-kanal and 10-marla plot files, respectively. DHA Gujranwala experienced these spikes because the buzz around other DHA projects i.e. in Multan and Bahawalpur, helped propel the Gujranwala chapter forward as well. Citi Housing prices remained somewhat consistent with the results found in January. New plots have been carved out in the society leading to an improvement. Master City did not experience much variation in price, which is odd given the development that is taking place in the society. We have learned that DHA Gujranwala’s popularity may have been partially responsible for mediocre level investor interest.

DC Colony continued with the drops it had experienced in January. With a 5.88% and 8.40%fall in 1-kanal and 10-marla plots in February, the society does not seem like it will recover anytime soon. It is pertinent to mention that it has been subjected to additional taxes, which has scared some investors away. Moreover, the Cantonment board has shut down transfers, approvals, sale-purchase, and more, for over four to five months, which has affected prices.

FINAL ANALYSIS

The month of February was flavoured with different trends for different cities. The realty market in Lahore is yet to come back to what it used to be, but the gradual improvement is pointing in the right direction. Gwadar shadowing Karachi’s property market is the real talking point. “Gwadar is an up and coming market and it has a lot of potential and can offer some serious returns. I don’t find it surprising that investors are diverting their attention from Karachi to Gwadar, especially given the highly affordable prices in Gwadar projects at the moment,” Zameen.com CEO Zeeshan Ali Khan.

Islamabad is slowly inching closer to stability, but growth in the capital city is not what it used to be. “Investors should make use of this opportunity to acquire property that can get them big returns. There is no way Islamabad won’t bounce back once major developments in the city approach completion,” Khan said.

Gujranwala’s mixed trends show that it has moved past the tax issue from last year and is tackling its own strengths and weaknesses. While February did not show much promise for the realty sector, there have been signs of improvement. The property sector could very well be on its way up soon.