Karachi: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor, Jameel Ahmad, has expressed confidence that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves will reach USD 14 billion by June 2025, following a combination of external inflows and payments due in the coming months.
Ahmad outlined that Pakistan had USD 2 billion in external payments due over the next two-and-a-half months. However, he emphasized that the country was expecting between USD 4 billion to USD 5 billion in foreign inflows during the same period. This would result in a net addition of USD 2 billion to USD 3 billion to the nation’s reserves.
The SBP chief noted that the foreign reserves are set to grow as the government continues to receive substantial foreign inflows, stabilizing Pakistan’s financial standing. “We expect a net addition of USD 2 to USD 3 billion, which will bring the total forex reserves to USD 14 billion by June 2025,” he said.
In response to concerns over trade relations, Ahmad also discussed the impact of tariffs on Pakistan’s exports to the United States. He revealed that Pakistan’s exports to the US stood at USD 5.2 billion, with USD 4.2 billion coming from textile exports. Despite concerns over new tariffs, Ahmad suggested that falling global oil prices would mitigate potential negative effects, resulting in a net positive impact on exports.
Moreover, Ahmad highlighted a positive trend in Pakistan’s import bill, which had increased by USD 500 million. However, this was offset by a USD 1 billion reduction in oil imports, leading to a net relief of USD 500 million. The Governor also disclosed that the SBP had resumed dollar purchases, which were helping stabilize both foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate.
On the fiscal front, Ahmad assured that the government remained committed to maintaining a budget deficit of 6 percent, noting fiscal relief measures that would reduce payments from PKR 9.8 trillion to PKR 8.8 trillion, saving the country PKR 1 trillion in the process. Despite potential shortfalls in revenue targets, the Governor downplayed the concerns, stating that they would not significantly affect the overall fiscal position.
In his final remarks, Ahmad addressed Pakistan’s external challenges, projecting a current account surplus for the remainder of the fiscal year, including the month of March. He attributed this to factors such as economic recovery in Gulf countries, an effective crackdown on informal remittance channels, and a narrowing gap between open market and interbank exchange rates. Additionally, he pointed to the seasonal rise in remittances during Ramazan as a contributing factor.
With these developments, Pakistan’s financial outlook appears poised for improvement, with the central bank taking key steps to stabilize the economy and ensure robust foreign reserves by mid-2025.
Samra Zulfiqar, a real estate analyst at Zameen.com, is passionate about finding projects that offer buyers the best returns. Her keen insights spotlight the market’s most promising opportunities.
