Islamabad: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has introduced short-term and long-term measures to address an anticipated revenue shortfall exceeding PKR 230 billion for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024-25 (October-December). In response to macroeconomic shifts and shortfalls in tax collection, the FBR has focused on stricter enforcement strategies and expanded tax compliance efforts.
During October 2024, the FBR collected PKR 877 billion, falling short of the assigned target of PKR 980 billion by PKR 103 billion. Over the first four months of the fiscal year (July-October), the FBR achieved a total collection of PKR 3,440 billion against a target of PKR 3,636 billion, resulting in a cumulative shortfall of PKR 196 billion. Officials attribute part of the shortfall to revised economic assumptions regarding GDP growth, import levels, inflation, and large-scale manufacturing, which initially influenced the tax target projections.
Aiming to close this gap, the FBR has strengthened efforts to capture untapped revenue sources. These include targeting high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) and tightening measures against tax evasion. The FBR has identified approximately 190,000 unregistered, high-net-worth individuals based on third-party data and has begun issuing tax notices to these individuals. It estimates PKR 7 billion in tax liabilities from these non-filers, with plans to pursue compliance from 50,000 non-filers and issue assessment orders to 25,000 of them through a dedicated tracking dashboard.
To address fraudulent practices, the FBR’s Directorate General of Intelligence and Investigation Inland Revenue has intensified its crackdown on corporate tax fraud, especially regarding fake and flying invoices. The directorate, headed by a senior tax official, plans to arrest at least two individuals from corporations monthly to send a strong message against tax fraud. Additionally, it has initiated cases against companies involved in tax fraud, with a combined liability of over PKR 75 billion.
On the policy side, the FBR has proposed increasing the federal excise duty (FED) on aerated and sugary drinks and raising withholding tax rates on importing machinery, raw materials, contracts, and services. These adjustments are projected to yield an additional PKR 10.8 billion monthly, contributing PKR 97.2 billion over the remaining three quarters of the fiscal year.
The IMF, in a recent report, stipulated that if revenue collection continues to fall short by a 1% margin, the government may implement contingency tax measures, which include further increases in advance income tax on machinery and raw materials, as well as higher withholding taxes on supplies and contracts. These measures, if enacted, are expected to contribute significantly to closing the revenue gap.
Despite the shortfall, the FBR emphasizes that refund processing has not been interrupted. In line with instructions from the FBR Chairman, refunds totaling PKR 32 billion were released on November 1, 2024, covering all pending Sales Tax Refund Payment Orders processed by September 30, 2024.
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