Islamabad: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has set an ambitious revenue target of PKR. 11,174 billion for the fiscal year 2024-25, aiming for a 9% tax-to-GDP ratio, as reported on July 9.
According to the details, this target excludes new taxes, representing a 20.8% increase from the PKR 9,252 billion collected in 2023-24. The FBR’s latest report, “Evidence-Based Revenue Forecasting for 2024-2025,” highlights the optimistic projection. The Tax-to-GDP ratio, which ranged between 8.7% and 9.2% in previous years, was at 8.5% last year. However, with data from the first quarter of the current fiscal year, it has improved to 9.0%. The revenue forecast for FY 2024-25 uses traditional methodologies, applying autonomous growth to the base year of 2023-24. This results in an expected increase of PKR 1,922 billion, bringing the total revenue forecast to PKR 11,174 billion.
FBR’s forecast does not include new budgetary measures, relying instead on buoyant taxes and positive correlations with macroeconomic indicators. This suggests that if economic conditions improve locally and globally, tax revenues will rise accordingly. Additionally, easing import restrictions is expected to boost tax collection at the import stage.
