Agents Take on how overlap of Ramadan, summer and Budget 2016-17 will affect the property market

Reputed real estate agents from Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad give us their take on the property market

Khalid Masood Butt, Brick Line Estate| Lahore

During the month of Ramadan, the number of our walk-in customers reduces by approximately 50%, primarily because clients usually find it convenient to visit us close to or after iftaar time and we are usually not available by then. However, during the last ten days of Ramadan and the first few weeks following Eid, there is a considerable boost in business activity.

Generally, the scorching heat during the summer season leads to a decline in market activity as both potential clients and agents are slightly less enthusiastic about site visits. Therefore, May and June are often the slowest months of the year. In addition to the rising temperature, the anticipation of the budget also leaves investors feeling anxious as they await the effects of the newly instated taxes and subsidies.

However, I personally feel that this year may be different as Ramadan coincides with the time when overseas clients visit Pakistan to make investments. While these clients are loaded with foreign remittances, they also have a clear understanding of what type of investment they want to make. During the last ten days of Ramadan, the real estate market recovers from the slight recession and rates tend to climb by 10% to 15%. This price rise is neither artificial nor temporary. The new higher rates remain stable and the market then continues to gradually grow.

The current infrastructural developments in the southern parts of Lahore suggest that there might not be a prominent slump in the market this year, at least not in this part of the city. Hence, investors who hibernate in the peak summer season and during Ramadan may not get a chance to remain idle this time around.

INVESTMENT TIP

As housing societies in the southern area of Lahore are currently constructing new roads and developing infrastructure, it may be beneficial to make a short- to medium-term investment in this area. Based on my knowledge and investor response, I would recommend Bahria Orchard and Lake City.

Kamran Abbasi, Grand Enterprises| Karachi

The real estate sector of Karachi does take a plunge during Ramadan; the drop witnessed is usually a minute 10% to 15%. Agents work in the evenings during this month and real estate businesses operate from taraveeh to sehri. In fact, throughout the summer season, there is more activity during the evening, which is why both Ramadan and the heat have little or no effect on the market.

This may seem strange to you but I believe that the visits of overseas Pakistanis do not result in a massive rise in transaction volume during the weeks following Eid. Sure, the market does escalate, but just by approximately 20% to 25%. This should not be viewed negatively because it is a sign of a very stable real estate sector. Just as rates do not recede a lot during Ramadan, they do not excessively escalate because of overseas Pakistanis either.

The budget 2016-17 may not have a major immediate impact as overseas buyers are not really concerned with it. Its impact can only be gauged when the market settles down and overseas Pakistanis leave the country after their vacation.

INVESTMENT TIP

The value of property in many of Bahria Town’s projects is going down. Although this situation has worried genuine buyers, the rapid pace of development will eventually leave them happy about their decision. I recommend Bahria Town Karachi (BTK).to new investors because the current drop in rates will increase their return on investment. Short- to medium-term investors should specifically invest in this locality.

Malik Fayyaz, Classic Estate| Islamabad

Although there shouldn’t be a seasonal effect on the real estate market, I have noticed that investors become somewhat less interested in purchasing property during the summer season. Ramadan also slows down property purchase activity. On average, my clientele decreases by about 80% as I am only available in office for a couple of hours every day. Thankfully though, the activity volume increases tremendously right after Eid and agents get rather busy attending to the rise in demand. This compensates for the prior dip.

Real estate agents in Islamabad tend to keep different timings during Ramadan. To cater to my existing clientele, I work between 10 am and 2 pm and this is when walk-in customers show up. When the market lacks lustre, interested investors also prefer not to make a move. This causes a minimal drop in rates, but not enough of a drop to spur purchase activity.

During my career in real estate, I have noticed that market activity picks up near the end of Ramadan and lasts till Eid-ul-Adha. Thus, it is obvious that property purchased before this time offers a profit of at least 15%.

At the time the Budget 2016-2017 is announced, the market will probably be catering to overseas investors who are not affected by it. Because of this, the real impact of this budget will be evident later on, when these investors fly back.

INVESTMENT TIP

Bahria has recently introduced new 5-marla files in Bahria Enclave’s Block P. These files have aroused the interest of a large number of buyers and investors as they are being sold at a profit of PKR 500,000. The rapid pace of development work suggests that possession may be offered within one year, as promised.

The massive demand for these files, and the considerable difference in the rates of 5-marla plots in neighbouring blocks, makes Block P files a good short-term investment.

Note: This Agents’ Take was originally published in Zameen.com Magazine issue of June 2016. You can subscribe to it by clicking here.