Here on the forum i have seen many experts contributor who are stuck with there hard earn money either in bahira, multi, uae to name few and to advise others to stay away while others exit when market was at peak.
It would be of great help if we could identify some early signs to exit.
Sir most of the signs are not based on micro or macro economic factors but rather the factors of corruption and land grabbing. If we move out of this then we can consider the the real factors. Just don't buy in uncertain areas.
regarding your question peaks and bottoms are always cyclical in nature and not linear and are more or less periodic. Since the inception of a society there will be peaks and busts at different stages uptil the maturity (in Pakistan peaks follow even after maturity). So you need to keep yourself updated when prices are rising or falling. If they are rising and have risen considerably contrast to neighboring societies then do not invest but wait. If it is falling then wait for the opportunity for the prices to stabilize and then invest if prospects are good. B-17 is an exception with corrupt management and more of a speculation like for example on MA completion. In such societies you cannot make an informed decision because such societies have no substance, though only inside information can help you.
Dear Waqas,
Arshad bahi reply is best reply and i am agree with him.Professional dealers are the only know the signs of enter and signs to exit.
Regards
Reply to acha ha pur samaj nahi aha
Adnan sab,
Authorised dealers ko malom hota ha ka kab patli gali se nikalna hai.I think time is changing not like before now game is in hand of dealers.
Regards
Adnan bhai what i meant was that the ups and downs in property are just like waves on a graph. From inception till maturity these waves go up where prices increase or down where prices fall so it is a cyclical process. Gains can be due to neighboring societies rising in prices, development and progress, possession etc. Losses can be due non development or slow development, stoppage of work due to some reason, possession delayed etc.
so exit or entry point in both up and down waves is in the up wave where prices rise they will stabilize before falling or correcting so sell and in the down wave where prices are falling they will fall and then stabilize and then start to rise so invest at that point.
how prices will rise or fall depends upon the particular society and you need to keep a close watch on prices.
As i gave an example of B-17 where such societies rather than replying on internal performance is relying on external like MA. So this is more of a bet because what if there is no MA!! also no one expected D,E,F issues there so only inside information will help regardless of whether you have a PhD in Demand supply or economics. That knowledge has no worth here
One more thing normally the surge in prices or fall is due to supply and demand and no one can measure it in the SHORT-TERM. You can measure supply demand in the long term that is why property is usually a long term investment not short-term. So there is only perception or your sixth sense which can guide you when to exit. Otherwise inside information is only way out
Arshad what about Bahria phase 8,9 and Garden city ,BE, DHA valley and phase 2 ext. Bahria all projects of pindi are depending upon qabza of Taji khookhar who is in prison. DHA projects are depending upon Daducha dam issues. I don’t why Riaz dako idoit paid touts are only barking against multi and blind to see the projects which I mentioned because they are simply idiots. Forget Bahria will do any further development in Pindi because Ch Nisar is not allowing Riaz dako to do further loot maar and qabza that’s why Taji khokhar is in prison.
There is no so called formula of exit and entry point in property business otherwise no one in this business would have never faced any losses, the certain profit range is a point of exit for one while it is a point of entry for the other, depends how investor perceive it, I would divide them in three main categories with different entry and exit point.
One : investors who invest in the beginning of projects or enter usually in very down level of market, makes few 100 thousands bucks in each booking, deals in volume booking and then exit, this is the best strategy in Pakistan real state business but one needs to be sitting there on spot and ready for quick reasonable decisions, even if market make after that further 200 % but they don't bother they make quick profits and exit and waiting for another round.
Two : enters when every one saying good about project, they usually suffers major ups and downs of the projects, they are the biggest risk takers and having no clue as now what to do next and finally they exit on certain point with either profit or loss, some get struck with their investment in this type and cannot find the right exit.. Some gets good profits at the long term and exit when no further profits are seen for long , in this type mainly the un-professional Bhair Chaal investors are included.
Three : This type normally enters when the project acquire a shape, the profits are not sudden but very steady and chances of losses are very less, in this type the exit point is easy and safe but normally at this stage investors are end buyers and keep for long, they mainly exit for another better projects otherwise are happy with what they have for their coming generations.
So waqas Bhai, the signs of exit for every investor is different, but one sign which is common for all is the stability of prices at certain stage is a sign for investor to take the decision to exit or enter.
Knowing when to get out is not as tough as knowing when to invest. It is easy to get out when you have made a good profit in a short period as long as you don't push your luck and wait for even more capital gains. Then the market will start to slide in correction phase.
But knowing when to invest is tricky! If you buy in DHA-2 today, you can get a good location kanal plot for around 90 lakhs. But you never know if the market goes into a slide in a few months and your plot price goes down to 82 or 84 lakhs. Then you will have PPS Syndrome (Post-Purchase-Stress syndrome)
Since people have raised the issue of B-17, let me quote its example as a classic case. In 2013, one kanal in B-17 Block C rose from 36-37 lacs to 70 lacs plus depending on location. B Block kanal rose from 47 lacs and was touching 90s. This increase cannot be managed only by dealers. You need investors behind it. There was also a lot of overseas money and local savings that came into B-17. Local investment came in because Pak Rupee was sliding down, then overseas investors also pumped money into B-17 in order to take advantage of the upward movement.
Plus, there must be solid on-the-ground work in order to motivate people to invest in a particular scheme. And that on-the-ground work was show cased in B-17's beautiful development standards in A, B and C Blocks.
Then the correction phase happened when the short term investor got out after making a heavy profit in a few days. One of our fellow contributors on this forum, Rana R S, struck gold! He made millions in a few months:
His story is available for everyone on the thread titled "More Investment in B-17". This thread is still among the most discussed post just above this post. Take as look:
http://www.zameen.com/forum/discussions/buying_property/more_investment_in_b_17-3776.html
Crap schemes can NEVER give you that kind of profits in a few months. Only the big names such as Bahria and DHA can do that. And Multi ranks among the Blue Chips. Everyone in Islamabad is aware of the brand-value of Multi. But the most interesting part is that even after correction phase plus general slow down in real estate all over Pakistan, the price of B-17 Blocks A, B and C did not just tumble completely. One kanal plot in Block C is still in 50s lakhs. Very good ones are 60 plus. It has not slumped to original 2013 level of 37 lakhs. Why?
Simply because of the solid infrastructure and beautiful environment of Multi Garden B-17 CDA Sector. Take a look for yourself:
Or you can also visit the project site to see the level and standard of high quality work carried out there.
Sir i have nothing personal with B-17 i just used it as an example. Yes its true even bahria and DHA face similar issues. DHA 2 Ext is no exception where in 2005 1 kanal overseas block file was selling around 40 lacs and fell as low as 7 lacs and increased to around 20s lacs til date. So a guy who bought it at 40 lacs and sold it off at 7 lacs is at loss but another guy who bought it at 7 lacs and sold it at 25 lacs made his gain.