Is the current property boom over ?

Buying Property General Advice
#147

Seems that you just read the headlines of the news and didn’t go into the details.
anyway,
Direct or indirect it’s doesn’t matter. it’s clear that FATF and IMF both are opposite amnesty schemes. here let me tell you one more thing is that you have to get prior approval from FATF before announcing such kind of amnesty schemes.

FATF gives us the deadline till next year. but according to Hammad Azhar. govt will go into the review again in a couple of months. the following is his statement.

" the sole remaining item on financial terrorism in the FATF’s original action plan would be completed in three to four months, in time for the next FATF plenary session"

you can read it here. New action plan items by FATF to be fulfilled in 12 months: Hammad Azhar - Pakistan - DAWN.COM

#148

Gents the bottom line will be …

– The current lot after economic meltdown will eye for easy target such as amnesty to stretch that as much as possible and each time messing it up with IMF.

– FATF (with France as most vocal opposer) will try keep PAK in Grey list as long as possible.

More then geniune efforts to get out of FATF the lot trying to buy as much time as possible and addressing a few points to get an extension for next time. FATF like UN is a politicized platform and the likes of France (recent dippomatic row and defense pacts with IND) will be strict on PAK.

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*Economic meltdown with Petro price increase like 4th time in 2 months and most expensive LNG deal are the indicators. Falling PKR doesn’t help the cause both on Real Estate as far as economic front!

#149

Read the news of which headlines? I went into full detail about everything.

You don’t have to get any approval from FATF to extend anything. I have source in FBR who told me exactly what needs to be done to complete FATF plans. As I mentioned, they are already using information from jewellers and real estate agents to identify potential terrorism-related suspects. Govt will do as it wishes regarding amnesty.

@Its_ImtiaX_88 Economic meltdown? I don’t see any economic meltdown coming. Our businesses are doing very well as of now. FATF is obviously political weapon being used by West and India but only a matter of time before we come out of grey list now. As for petrol prices, did you know international price for oil has increased by more than 40% since start of year? In that same period, govt has only increased prices by about 20%. The government is absorbing the remaining 20% losses now being incurred on taxpayer as a whole. Govt is doing its bests to keep inflation low but you can’t control oil prices being manipulated by OPEC and co. We are an oil-importing nation, oil prices are out of our hands.

And falling PKR? Hahaha, you make me laugh. PKR in last two months has went up and down by a few rupees. The heavy devaluations period is gone now. Heavy devaluation is what causes losses to real estate because overseas and foreign investors panic. But a few rupees going up or down doesn’t matter, this is just normal demand and supply issue at the moment. Foreign reserves will improve in coming months as more loans arrive so PKR will strengthen again and exports are increasing so that will also have ripple effect on strengthening of PKR.

Overall, economic situation is very good especially related to real estate is very good. Our businesses are doing very well, are profitable, becoming more efficient and exporting.

#150

Since the topic is on property boom so I’ll try not to derail much, just sharing my view. Yes, Economic Meltdown, you read that right.

Don’t take my words, just check that out on PAK bureau of statistics (states own version).

  • USD Rise (check the trend in last 30 days)

  • Inflation: Wheat/Sugar/Oil/whatever daily use items getting out of reach each passing month, Petro Prices increase like almost twice each month in last 2 months (yes intl. price increase but not mentioning Petro price/Barrel, just x% doesn’t reflect true picture). Just check out taxes and levy on Petro Prices enough of a reality check. Most expsnive LNG deal.

  • Unemployment rate

  • Most expensive deal of LNG in history of PAK.

===
Probabaly I need to enlighten myself on

Worst conomic condition was with USD @ 110, inflation under 5%, Growing GDP beyond 5.5, Petro well under 100, Aata Cheeni @ half the price now.

Very Good Economic condition of now.

#151

How simple to understand but I do not know why we ignore the very obvious?
PKR was a must to float on its actual worth in the international money market.
Someone has to do that but the dudes were holding it & always took loans to support it…
Plus why we ignore Corona while being Arastoo on Pak economy?
Everything is improving in Pakistan & the whole world knows & praising but
جانے نہ جانے گل ہی نہ جانے
باغ تو سارا جانے ہے۔۔
I will not reply further as it just gets useless on a useless counter argument…

1 Like
#152

Indeed Qayyum sahab. Imtiaz is a diehard PMLN supporter I think… I was once too and in 2018 was very skeptical of PTI govt. But they have done a good job economically. If PMLN were to remain in power, we would have been a bailed out economy by now.

We are on a very good track at the moment. @Its_ImtiaX_88 You need to understand that inflation and pak rupee devaluation was due to years of mismanagement by previous governments. They were running on mass deficits and import-fueled economy while also juggling and keep rupee at an artificial rate. Had they let rupee float as it wishes, we could have avoided so many losses incurred to state bank via purchasing of different currencies to keep rupee afloat at a high rate. And as for petrol prices, govt reduced the taxes by 6 rupees and had to increase the petrol prices partially in line with increase of international prices. LNG deal, well once again this is a cost of being a commodity-importing nation. Government had been giving mass subsidies to every basic item at the expense of taxpayer and getting more and more loans. That is not economically sound. Imran Khan’s government did what had to be done to save our economy and from massive international embarrassment like Greece has suffered.

Unemployment rate you say? We are 8% for last financial year which is very good considering the impact of coronavirus. We are one of the few countries to register a positive growth of GDP during corona times and that too a healthy one of 4%. While other countries are sitting with negative GDP growth rates and 10% plus unemployment rate even the USA is sitting at 11% which is considered gold standard of economies.

You need to exit la la land and understand PPP and PMLN governments were running our country into the ground. Their leaders couldn’t care less too as their money is stashed in swiss banks and offshore accounts so even if Pakistan failed, they could easily run away and enjoy life in foreign countries watching their children play polo.

2 Likes
#153

Asad sb
Well said sir. Rational thinking is essentially required to analyze country’s situation amid Corona’s spread in the country.
Our exports on the rise, our foreign policy is the best & never formulated like Imran govt for the last 70 years.
Dams are being made, education nisab making history as before no one had courage to make historical changes in education sector.
Tourism is being addressed which can alone make Pakistan a rich country.
I feel pain when an educated man sets his mental approach just on personalities & personalities like proven mafia & cheaters and proved themselves against state interests…

#154

I guess, political affiliation (die hard fan or critic) doesn’t matters, argumentation matters as long as it has facts and substance behind it I never mind factual correction and I leave it here.

  • My question: Do any of the gents here have even an iota of sense or knowledge of what’s the PKR price per global markets? No you don’t have, not even state bank governor has because it’s for now is on free float, unless artificial manipulation and that’s not that bad depends on economic context.

  • Just check the USD-PKR parity, GDP, inflation and unemployment (Dec 2019) even before COVID hit PAK. You will get your answer.

  • The answer I still don’t get is how nose dived GDP (5.6 to 1.4 pre COVID), rising inflation and unemployment are a very good path while the alternate was a mess.

Rocket Science?

#155

A developing country like ourselves cannot afford to meddle, control and maintain artificial value of a currency. Yes it can be a good thing but we don’t have resources to do it. Only true superpowers or highly developed countries like China or US can afford it. I hope you read up on the ERM crisis of Europe especially UK’s crisis in 1990 where they lost billions because they tried to maintain artificial value of currency respective to other currencies. After that, very few European countries have tried to control their currencies, they let them free.

You know there are many countries with terribly devalued currencies that are very rich and developed most notably Korea. 1 USD to over 1000 Korean Wons, but they don’t see to care and rightfully so as they have their eyes on actual key economic factors. And once again, all those GDP, unemployment statistics are a result of inheriting a terribly performing economy thanks to a decade of PPP and PMLN governments.

And why are you even talking pre covid? We have already gone through the tough times where we could have been a bailed out economy. Look at our current situation and the path we are on. Our economy is actually doing well and major economic factors are improving.

As for economic situation of country linked to real estate, so far it is very positive. Low taxes, low interest rate, high remittances, high market investment.

#156

Figures and Data are suggestive, textual description can be anybody’s right and nothing more than subjective interpretations …

#157

Then please look at current figures and data, they are very good. Also additional point, taxation has become much better, I am even beginning to see impact in main city areas where POS tax system has been setup by FBR. We not only achieved July tax targets but exceeded them by 70 billion.

#158

500 construction projects not included in amnesty scheme (thenews.com.pk)

“He demanded extension in both these amnesty schemes. However, he said that builders and developers, especially from Sindh, were unable to benefit from these schemes due to the fourth wave of coronavirus and obstacles in getting NOCs.”

#159

The point is to look into data with comparative analysis (2013-2018-mid — 2018-mid to-Date)

To destroy and than recover isn’t a progress it’s a Damage Control …

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Yes, I agree, me being subjective here. The only reason, data and evidences already shared by me like countless times and on such online forums rationale rarely works or is hardly understood …

#160

Then look into data of loans, budget deficit, import-export deficit, taxation as well please. You are ignoring statistics that make the backbone of any economy and looking at the front page stat sheet. When you’re looking to buy a car, you don’t just see if the body is perfect but more importantly the engine and what’s inside. Economy under PMLN and PTI was perfect body and rotting insides and engine. The car that is our economy was going to come to a halt. PTI came in and not only repaired the engine but is now working on maintaining it.

What PTI has done is not damage control. They have essentially saved our economy from bankrupting having to be bailed out and our debt being owned by lots of foreign governments which is also terrible for us politically as we would lose balance of power. I have explained to you countless times this but your emotions get in the way of looking at actual logic.

#161

The argument is already sold beyond its expiry: PKR, Inflation (Aaata, Cheeni, Ghee, Pertol etc.), unemployment, GDP, debt servicing and all that matters was Artificially Controlled.

I am sure enlightened men would understand by having Austerity you can manage deficits but you will wreck the growth!!

(Person having an earning and start compromising on family development, education, medical, lifestyle will save more (less deficit, more balance available) but its a progress backwards).

Rest, I prefer to put the argument to rest when instead of issue at hand the conclusive arguments are based on accusations of emotions and political affiliation …

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For simplification, I am ignoring the fact that how a civil leadership is facilitating day light encroachment on civil space whith all retired souls destroying institutes …

#162

Once again repeating the same things. I’ve already explained in very simple terms using car analogy how PTI saved the economy. You continue to reject reality so I won’t speak further on this.

#163

IMF approves $2.8b in fresh funds for Pakistan (tribune.com.pk)

#164

This should very well help strengthen rupee this month

#165

In short term, the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) may do patch-fixing for PKR but at payback time will give a blood bath to PKR and further escalate already skyrocketing inflation …

#166

We have seen in the past that whoever confronted USA & Europe, it’s currency got over the roof on inflation…
When Zembabwy got harder on white expats and took their agri lands, the whol country’s worth including state bankd & all private banks came down to…hold the breath… you will be astonished…yes only & only 5 (US $)… The whole state total worth…
Same is happening to Iran but Iran is a rich state in oil.
Now see Labanon depreciation. Lira
of Turkey had difficult time but Adurgon is blessed with a vision and surviving…
Pakistan, Allah Forbid, likely to go through the toughest time since it’s inception…Our PKR could hit 1000s of Rs to $…
But as Asad sb rightly said, currency was need to float in actual worth .
G - plus statas will be snatched from Pakistan & USA will do all as it is the most brave decision , Imran govt or any Pak govt ever took in the last 70 years.
Our only hope is expats remittance which only Imran can bring as expats have trust on Imran and hate mafia of N & Z.
Bhagora London mafia has no trust with expat community at all.
Pakistan was a trained & obedient dog for USA but now Pak is what it had to be…
Tough time is written on wall friends & a visionary leader like Imran is the only answer…
Allah Pak iss shakhs ko ek term aour de…Aameen.

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