Dear friends, which one do you think is a better buy for investment as well as keeping the living option open? My thoughts...
D-12: as we know is the last developed sector left in z1 so obviously demand & supply will push the price upwards even if cda doesn't do any development (like carpeting roads, street lights, parks, commercial, markaz, utilities/gas issues, c sectors development,)
Be-1: thats where the middle/upper middle class islamabad crowd will run towards for great standards and super lifestyle as z1 is either filled/not affordable anymore and z2 though great location, simply does not offer a decent community living lifestyle that we need to raise a family. And z5 (dha-2, bahria 8, though super quality standards) is another world called rawalpindi.
Issues with d-12: current high prices does not justify the % of development and % of houses built.
Xxx Is there enough juice left to double money in 5-7years or even 10 years?
Issues with be-1: old bahria used to develop/give possession of physical plots while building trust/brand name.Example: bahria rwp p1-6... Now thats done and the brand-name is established and we have a new bahria called (zardari-mr style) which sell files, announce more projects, collect more money, forget about existing projects and develop 5% of project in front of main entrance to attract/fool more people into the unfinished projects. Examples bahria p8, p9, issues with dha valley, be-2, question marks on be-1 and more projects in pipeline across many cities. If any project that actually i think will be a success that will be bahria karachi due to huge profits and ppp govt. Thanks to vision zardari for gifting cheap land.
Xxx Since focus is on karachi and upcoming launches in hyderabad, peshawar and others. Will be-1 be able to increase development pace, announce at least 50% of project possessions, attract at least 1000 families for living, settle 1500 kanal land and other issues with cda in next 5-7years?
This is simply my thoughts and i like cda, bahria, dha and mpchs projects for either its location or standards. Please do not take any offence if my thinking does not make sense.
Please seniors shed some light on this topic, specially experts from the area like BR malik sb and other friends.
Given the time frame BE1 is good option. D-12 is like a tortoise now. Yup it has gained much and i do not understand why it is so slow in terms of development when possession is there. 7 years is a very long time but i think BE1 would do much better than D-12. D-12 also has the problem of traffic congestion and not so good location, i think a main turn-off for anyone not considering to build house there. I may be wrong but i am saying this because few people i know rejected opting to D-12 for this reason. MA is another catalyst to turn the game but MA = Mission Ampossible.
DHA 2 on the other hand is a much better option to consider, don't know about doubling but u will not regret investing here for such a long term as you can benefit greatly from Islamabad expressway expansion.
@ Arshad sb … I believe you were also considering G13/14/15 and D12 at one point. Were you able to make a decision? I know in current market situation its very hard to decide specially CDA prices are non-stop going up.
Bahria Enclave is good development but middle of nowhere.
D-12 has good location but average access currently.,D-12 will require another 10 years to come upto standard of good cda sector.
@Ammad yes i was considering as you mentioned and i found G-13 and G-15 being the better. Reason being G-15 is way cheaper with almost 40% populated. Room for growth is good.
G-13 because it has almost 50-55% population and the price justifies it if compared against D-12. D-12 is a posh sector so the prices are high but recently due to prevailing non-construction activity and non-development prices fell by a 10-20% most likely a correction, however, in g-13 prices have seen a very small gain instead. G-13 is on more solid grounds than is D-12. G-14 only worth considering is G-14/4 but due to the non-development of G-14/1-2-3, G-14/4 is missing the charm as is surrounded by villages. If you visit G-14/4 you will find that plots near the boundaries of non-developed sub-sectors are not worth investing and the price variation is too high. Its terrain is also unsuitable especially in rains because all the water passes from g-13 and stops at in G-14/4. This is y u will see mostly roads there are uneven and cracked most of the time.
if i have the funds then i will choose G-13 and G-15 among the options
Such a dilemma to choose between the two since you want to keep the building and living option open.
If it was purely for investment i would have chosen D12. After G13 is fully populated in about 5 years, D12 will be the only option left for people who want to live close to central Islamabad. I think it's prices may come at par or even cross E11. On the other hand, I am not sure even after 5 years D12 will be a nice and clean neighborhood to live. All depends on incompetent CDA.
BE is although in middle of nowhere but offers good security and good living standards. As an investment it is also good and will give good profit in long term. The big problem is if you have to commute daily to central Islamabad for work/business/school. It will be a huge burden on your transportation/fuel consumption as well as waste of time.
So it all boils down to your personal preferences. Both are good for investment, one slightly better than the other. If you don't mind long commute to Islamabad then i recommend BE otherwise D!2.
I have investment at both D-12 and BE-1. For living, BE has no comparison with D-12. For price increase, D-12 will be better.
No doubt D-12 has higher prices but look at E-11. D-12 is sure to surpass E-11. When a sector comes in motion, our estimates go wrong. There are a lot of nature loving people and they pay any price for it. If I have an option again, I would raise my family at BE instead of D-12. Reason is security.
If we look at BE through Google Earth, it's a bit surprising that work is going on almost all sectors simultaneously.
Atleast BE construction work is much faster than CDA's work anywhere. We small plot owners has nothing to do with Malik Riaz n Zardari nexus. We should look at fundamentals of the property Vs our own circumstances.
Very well said BR Malik Sb. I think i still remember very well the same objections raised when Phase 7 and Phase 8 were just starting for Bahria. I was one of the first few who shifted to Safari Villas 2 and it was for 65 lakh. No one wanted to buy anything for the fear of MR running away etc. Today same Safari villas are for 180 lakh and with a very decent community and very well maintained.
I have the same feeling about BE. The construction pace is really good compared to any other project in Pakistan except for Bahria Karachi.
I wont be surprised that sooner or later prices will suddenly jump in BE1. Again that's my personal analysis.
It's a fact that Bahria projects has little demand VS supply gap which is the reason that prices do not rise astronomically. But all this is good for genuine house owners.
CDA sectors has a lot of demand supply gap. Ultimately genuine house owner pay the profit of investors.
B.R malik @ very well said on the comparison.
Thanks Junaid and Asad.
@ BR Malik sb, Thanks for your input, Can you please clarify a few things that you've mentioned.
1- Security: Do you think D-12 has security issues because of Shah Allah Dita/villages etc around and not enough houses built around D-12 and BE-1 is safe because its a gated community?. But that will obviously gets solved in next 5-7 years when the sector gets more populated.
2- D-12 vs E-11 price comparison: Don't you think its comparing apples to oranges because the prices of a built-up sector (E-11) will be higher than an Undeveloped/Un-built sector (D-12). Yes, If you compare 35x70 plot prices E-11 is probably 50 Lakh more but also keep in mind that D-12 will need 7-10 years to get to where E-11's population/development is today. So doesn't that prove that D-12 is overvalued/overpriced at this point and only have 50 Lakh worth juice left which will take maybe 5 years.
3- D-12 vs BE-1 Investment wise: Don't you think that its easy for a 35x70 in BE-1 to go from 75 lakh to 150lakh vs in D-12 to go from 160 lakh to 320 lakh in say next 7years.
These are just my views for the sake of discussion and narrowing down the choices and i could be totally wrong. I appreciate your valuable insight as you have investments in both D12 and Be-1.
Will reply after some time IA.
@ Malik Sb, thank you, will wait for your feedback.
@Fullname, thanks, you are right, it gets harder to decide,when you want to invest as well as keep the living option open.
@Arshad sb, You are right that G-13 price is more justified as compared to D-12 if we look at ground reality (% development + % Houses Built) but i am personally a little biased towards G-13 and don't like much the Pindi effect as compared to the D-12 which is Isolated and deep inside Islamabad. If I was not considering the Living option then G-13 would be on the list.
...Now at the same time, dillema is that D-12 though nicely located deep inside Islamabad, has virtually no development and will need 7-10 years to get to E-11/F-11 level while the prices are already on high side. I would expect that based on ground reality D-12 prices be half of E-11/built up sector prices but thats not the case and thats why this is a turn-off for many people who can't get around it.
...DHA-2 is an excellent option, if you want peace of mind, secure and predictable investment but its RAWALPINDI and not my target location.
Ammad sb i did not know you are considering living as well. Yes D-12 is better than G-13 in terms of living esp. For someone who prefers islamabad only. G-13 has some defects as well and is not perfect in any manner. It is an underdog cashing its location and advantage of being the only sector in the vicinity where construction work is taking place. It ha water issues, there is scarcity of underground water and the inclusion of 4 marla in abundance with other sizes really makes it a pathetic development.
yes D-12 is indeed good investment but i think not for now as many things are not clear. Anyhow don't you think waiting for 7 years for a jump to come is rather over-optimistic. No one can guarantee there will be such a gain as predicted. Instead one can invest in other areas where prices may increase and later using the same funds can reinvest in D-12 when it starts to pick momentum.
@Arshad Sb, I have considered that strategy about investing in other areas and then later using the funds along with profits in D-12. But that strategy will only work if my ROI is higher in Area X as compared to D-12. And nobody knows which Area X has the potential to beat D-12. Some people still believe that as G13 is running out of plots, D-12 will feel the upward price pressure.
...But for that reason I am considering BE-1, as an alternate to D-12.
@Arshad: With regards to ROI, Which areas in your opinion has the potential to beat D-12 in next say 1-2 years?
Ammad, If you search the old posts in zameen forum, 3 years back people used to say the same thing about G13 that the "prices are too high". At that time 8 marla was around 50 lac; now it's over 110 lac. I missed out for thinking the same.
A famous Chinese proverb that i can relate to investing in CDA sector:
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”
Exactly i agree with Fullname on this as i read a similar post regarding this but i feel most of the investors or dealers here when giving advice considers the current situation most likely the short-term and in comparison to other societies or sectors. Real Estate in fact has been increasing since a long time and almost where ever one invests. Usually G-13 is compared against G-11 but 3 years back G-11 was on the lower side so thats why everyone found G-13 expensive back then.
Ammad bhai G-13 itself is slow now due to overall slow market. I did not understand what you mean by "beating D-12 in 1-2 years". But if u don't have the funds to invest in D-12 right now then it maybe difficult to tell where would you invest to gain as much so to move to D-12 because no one can predict the future.
G-13 cannot beat D-12 in the long term and if it can then only in the way that D-12 remains undeveloped while G-13 transforms into a beautiful livable sector.
But G-13 can beat D-12 in the short-term given atleast some remaining development completes on time and more houses are built. Even now some good location plots in G-13 cost the same as in D-12. I don't think any other place can beat D-12 infact D-12 has beaten everyone.