Dear Forum Members
I think Real estate market still has potential, as there are many other factosr we need to address when we give our opinion/analysis. We should keep our emotions on a side when we give our opinion/analysis.
In Pakistan unfortunately real estate is the only segment which has been profitable over the past many years, if we see our other segments like (Agriculture,Industries, Trade, IT etc) they are in the decline due to shortfall of Electricity,Gas and the security conditions in Pakistan, as we all know our major segment of the industry is shifted to Turkey and Bangladesh.
Couple of members had mentioned that investors will move to UAE/Dubai, but we need to understand the Dubai real estate market also. I am working in Dubai in Real Esatate Sector. So i thought to share my opinion with other members.
In Pakistan in real estate there are many big guns but there are a lot of small investors also like the people who are working in different companies as executive and they invest in property so that in the future they can sell their properties and let their kids to complete their studies.even the small or med size people who are running their shops etc. They normally invest in 5,8 or max 10 marla plots.The prices starts from 2.5 m to 7 m rupees for these plots.Why these people invest in properties bcoz the banks are not offering them the good interest rate, so most of them left with one option that is to buy a plot for few years and then sell it once it increased.
4.I personally believe that real estate marker in Pakistan is much more stable comparing to Dubai. I think most of the people who invested in last 10 years in real estate they all are the winners, but in Dubai the market is not stable at all. It goes up and suddenly drops down, if any body in the forum is watching the Dubai market in last 10 years he must have notice many ups and downs.
5.I agree with few members that the market will get slow but prices will not go down much. In Dubai only the big investor can invest,then where the small investors will go?
case study
I will compare the Dubai and Pak real estate investment for 3 years.
In Dubai the cheapest studio apartment will cost you around 12 m whose rental income is approximately (8-10%), which after paying the service charges of the building (1-2.5%),after paying the service charges your Rental income goes to (7-8.5%). We all knows that if we invest this money in Pakistan there are chances that this 12 m can goes to (15-18 m) in 3 years which is around (25-45 %). Even if we pay the new tax still our profit would be (22-40 %) which is still better than the Dubai but the Rental income of Dubai is (21-26 %). Keeping in mind that here the property prices does not increase much your profit is your rent.
So i think only big investors may switch to Dubai but i have a very strong believe that Small investment still would be profitable. It just the matter of time we should not be desperate and see in 2 months where the market goes.