For 2022, 4% I too ambitious, I think WB predicted it to be 2%
World bank predicts it 4.3% this year and 4% next year.
Thank you! I stand corrected and I see it’s updated Apr-22, I saw at 2% but that is older now.
I think rupee will keep fluctuating until deal with IMF is cemented and $2 bn additional package is secured.
Yes, a surge will happen in Petro & Power pricing but hope it transitions to stability and hyper Inflation.
Miftah has a steep challange ahead, Dar may be on his side but that’s the real test - make or break for Miftah and specifically Economic team of PML.
Showbaz Speed going well with his usual interest in development and infrastructure projects, most important is economic team firing all cylinders to improve and more importantly curtail hyper Inflation.
Showbaz will his entourage comprising allies, his team, family and baray bhai sahib is destined to Saudi on Umrah pilgrimage.
If you add 2+2, you’ll end up with the following conclusion:
Establishment got completely fed up with Nalaiq Niazi who bragged too high in his CV as world’s biggest chanda collector. But practically, aside from deposit facility from KSA, UAE and PRC, he could not bring in any serious $ to feed the power. Rather he lost CPEC $ and annoyed MBS, Erdogan and Biden. So he got kicked out and replaced with Showbaz with the same task assigned, that is , bring in money., no matter how… beg, borrow or steal !
Showbaz sent Miftah on the first hunt; he comes back with a confirmed kill – 2 bn dollars and 1 year extension. Now Showbaz goes himself for another kill. This time, the usual hunt, the Saudis. After this will be World bank, then Qatar, then UAE, then China, then …, then … then …
If he passes the test and continues to feed the beast, he’ll be allowed to stay, otherwise, kicked out in a matter of minutes.
Baray bhai sahib and Munshi tried to feed the beast with “earned” money rather than “begged”, they have been made horrendous example.
On the economic front news are not good. Wheat crop is devastated with loss of 30% due to fertilizer mafia, that’ll substantially increase import bill to fill the gap. Secondly, Indonesia has banned Palm oil export, drought in Argentina and Canada and Ukraine war is brewing edible oil crises. Oil/Ghee is already 3-fold higher in Pak (~Rs.500 per kg). Expect it to go through the roof in few weeks. This will push us in hyper inflation of food.
Thoughtful insights!
*Apologies, slight off-topic on economy/devaluation but on-topic regarding those who used to call the shots
I would like to add, let’s call it Establishment …
It’s divided more than ever in last 72+ yrs. The folks who used to call shots in the blink of an eye are weakest. They are being explicitly name called and hunted on Social Media and in real but they seem hopeless …
I am not talking about Retired lot, ARY Jantaa I am talking about men in power who are called in Public: Tum Neutral ho, Neutral tu Jaanwar hota hai
Would they allow this Psycho to be on their necks again? Things will remain uncertain till Oct/Nov with new COAS.
A man, aspiring to be future COAS is pumping up this PTI ballon against current COAS. If the man doesn’t becomes COAS, PTI will be worst than PML-Q come next election.
- All these trend on Social Media is to malign current COAS.
- All the cry for earliest election is to be PM and have COAS of own choice by Oct and revive 10-Year Plan.
Sorry, I did not mean to convert this thread into political battle ground. So let me conclude my earlier post by saying that under the circumstances Pak Rupee is going to face pressure for next 6 months at least and hope we attain internal political stability as well as global supply chain restoration in this time.
Dollar is back to the historic high, that is PKR 190 and stock market is sliding down.
Apparently, this is linked to suspended IMF and Saudi/UAE dollars. Talks with IMF are due on 18th at Doha.
Inflation is also making new high records.
Coalition govt is in a thick soup, it can not undo oil subsidy due to public pressure and IMF wouldn’t budge an inch without it – damn if you do it, damn if you don’t !!!
We are clearly headed towards economic chaos, something along the lines of Sri Lanka. Allah na karay.
Allah na karay.
آمین ثم آمین
Rupee continues its down slide despite historic foreign remittance (above $ 3bn in April).
If Shahbaz govt continues to bury their head in sand and avoid taking tough decisions, then it may convert into a full scale disaster.
.
What are you waiting for Showbaz, show us what you can do !
investment
Humayyun dear, this is good post, but misplaced in this thread.
Let’s keep this thread only for currency discussion.
Thanks.
USD balloning up, however hope is that with IMF talks and program resumed will trigger Saudis and Amaratis to deposit to help PKR gain back …
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Some bitter pills to be swallowed like Fuel pricing. Current govt indecisiveness making it worst.
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A few voices in Finance ministry suggesting not a agressive hike but little in Petro + other sources to increase revenue to assure IMF.
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May end will unveil better, Budget will decide better for FY-22/23. Drop in international markets (if happens) can help the cause.
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Remittances are up (good indication), PKR and stocks primarily depends on IMF talks and agreement.
Its too late, country is heading towards default. Politicians does not have capacity.
Question: Who has the Capacity …? 
Pls no politics on this place…
We know here only a couple of members are responsive & no one else is interested to participate in politics.
The point where Pakistan has come up is knowns to all 22 crores Pakistanis & what is needed now is also obvious…
There is no doubt that if this imported setup prolonged, Pakistan is going to be another Sri Lanka…
Allah Pak na kare ke aage aage Kuch log houn aur pechay awam with stones…
" Mera currupt tumhare currupt se Acha hay" discussions now no more valid…
اللہ پاک سے دعا کرنے کا وقت ہے۔۔
ہماری بربادیوں کے چرچے ہیں آسمانوں میں ۔
@faheem.sultan dear,
Sadly, you are 100% right.
Dr. Farrukh Saleem has lamented upon this topic further, he declares financial emergency.
With 5000 billion budget deficit, 20,000 billion new loans and stalled IMF program you are not getting anywhere near recovery. Titanic needed just one iceburg to sink, you have many. The 3 that I mentioned are just the tip of the iceberg.
Economic and political uncertainty is causing rupee to crash.